2011 NFL Championship Round Predictions

The last week of NFL football proved to be unpredictable for me as I went 1-3 in my picks. The only team that was able to make me look like I had some semblance of an idea about the landscape of the NFL were the Green Bay Packers who were also my pre-season pick to win the Super Bowl. Yet what intrigued me the most about the Divisional Round of the Playoffs was not the fact that I absolutely shat the bed on my picks, but rather it was the evident disparity of parity within the conferences.

Over in the NFC, there were two blowouts between teams that obviously were on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to talent and ability. The Packers have always been the most talented team in the NFC, and the Bears paid way too much money in the off-season to their free agent acquisitions to lose at home to the Seattle Seahawks (By the way, what a HORRIBLE time for the Seahawks to remember that they just don't have enough talent to compete with teams this season. Oh well, we'll always have the last two games in Seattle). The Packers and Bears have been proving to their entire conference throughout the season that they have the two largest collections of talent in the NFC and it is not close for third (which would have been shared by Atlanta and New Orleans who have great players, but not enough good players to survive with the Packers and Bears).

The AFC showcased two matchups of division rivals who knew each other well, but also showed that they were very evenly matched with one another. If you took these four teams and had them play each other in a round-robin format for 6 games, I think all the teams would end up with identical 3-3 records. The AFC has truly become an "Any Given Sunday" type of conference where any one of those top teams can beat the other and it showed in those two close games between the Ravens and Steelers, and the Patriots and Jets. Having to choose between Pittsburgh and New York is going to be such a tough task (that also goes for Green Bay and Chicago), so I've decided that the best thing to do is to list these four teams by position group and decide where the biggest deficiencies are so that an intelligent (and correct) decision can be reached. On to the picks!

NFC Championship: #2 Chicago Bears (12-5) vs. #6 Green Bay Packers (12-6)

QB's: Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers - I think the answer is obvious here, but let's go ahead and give it a little more explanation. In the two playoff games Rodgers has been in this year he has thrown for 6 TD's, run for 1, and thrown 0 INT's. He also has only thrown 14 incompletions in 63 attempts. Cutler, on the other hand, had a good game at home against the very bad Seahawks secondary. The jury is out on Cutler, but the verdict is in for Rodgers and it says Rodgers is really, really good.
Advantage: Green Bay

Running Game: Chicago has Matt Forte and a shaky O-Line that has come together in the second half of the season. Plus, Mike Martz has shown a willingness to run a bit more which has given the running game of the Bears much more confidence. The Packers counter with James Starks, a man that has come out of nowhere to provide two nice games in the playoffs and they also have Jon Kuhn and Brandon Jackson who provide a nice change of pace. Neither team's running attack scares me, so I'm going to go with a push.
Advantage: Neither

Receivers and TE's: The Bears receivers are lead by the speedy combo of Devin Hester and Johnnie Knox with Earl Bennett and Greg Olson providing the possession attack. They can stretch the field and also run the 8 yard curl route on 3rd and 6 that can beat you. The Packers counter with a who's who of receivers in Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver, and Jordy Nelson. The reason that Jones and Nelson are household names is because of Rodgers, but these men know how to run all the routes, deep and shallow, and they extend plays better than any group of receivers in the NFL.
Advantage: Green Bay

O-Line: Both O-lines have had good days and both have had bad ones. I've seen both teams allow multiple sack in a game and I have also seen those same linemen give the QB's 4 to 5 seconds in the pocket on any single play. It is a matter of which defense can challenge and confuse the O-Line to a greater extent.
Advantage: Neither

D-Line: I really like the duo of Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji on the Packers side, but Julius Peppers is an absolute beast and Israel Idonije (sorry, I sneezed) and
Tommie Harris clog the middle up as well as any other DT's in the league. This is an easy one because of the man in Navy Blue wearing #90.
Advantage: Julius Peppers... I mean, Chicago

Linebackers: This is the closest of the groupings for these two teams. The Bears have phenomenal athletes in Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs who can make tackles on any portion of the field. The Packers have possibly the best defensive player in the NFL in Clay Matthews and a couple of stalwarts in the middle of the field with A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop. For both teams, this area is a strength, but I think the Packers' scheme and Clay Matthews make the difference.
Advantage: Green Bay

Secondary: This is the most obvious discrepency between these two teams. The Packers might have the most talented secondary in the league with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams on either side of the field and Pro Bowler Nick Collins manning the middle of the field. The Bears counter with Charles Tillman, an above-average CB, and not much else.
Advantage: Green Bay

Special Teams: Devin Hester.
Advantage: Chicago

Prediction: This game will be a defensive struggle due to the fact that it is the third game between these two teams and the fact that these two teams have great defenses and bad weather to battle against, it will be the team who scores 20 or more points that wins this game. The Packers proved in Philadelphia that they can win close ones like these and I think they do it again. Packers win 20-10

AFC Championship: #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4) vs. #6 New York Jets (13-5)

QB's: Big Ben vs. Mark Sanchez - All these two men do is win, no matter what. They've got titles on their mind, they can never get enough. And every time they step up on the field, everybody's hands go up... and they stay there Sorry, I had to quote the chorus of the song "All I Do Is Win" for these two men because that is really all they do. These men are leaders and they make a habit of showing up when it matters. The only difference, Big Ben has two Super Bowl titles under his belt.
Advantage: Pittsburgh

Running Game: The Jets have the healthier O-Line and a Hall of Famer in LaDainian Tomlinson. Add Shonn Greene, a man that only shows up in the playoffs, to that attack and that is a fearsome group. The Steelers counter with Rashard Mendenhall and an O-Line that is average when healthy. Mendenhall isn't bad, but his O-Line is.
Advantage: New York

Receivers and TE's: The Steelers have the most underrated Tight Ends in the NFL today because they are asked to block just as well if not better than they catch the ball. They are a huge part of the Steeler offense. Add the speedy abilities of Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace and the reliability of veterans Antwaan Randle El and Hines Ward and it is tough to cover all of those weapons. But the Jets have three bonafide stars at reciver in Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, and Santonio Holmes, plus their Tight End Dustin Keller is a reliable option as well. If I need a big play on third down with two minutes left, I'm relying on Holmes to catch the ball more often than Antonio Brown (the Steelers WR who caught the long ball on 3rd and 19 with two minutes left against the Ravens last week... I knew you had already forgotten).
Advantage: New York

O-Line: Last week, the Steelers had to play Dan Legursky, THEIR LAST AVAILABLE LINEMAN OFF OF THE BENCH! The Jets have Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, two men that are soon-to-be perrenial Pro Bowlers (Mangold is the starter for the AFC this year).
Advantage: New York

D-Line: These two groups are carbon copies of each other. Playing with three down lineman, Casey Hampton, Zigi Hood, and Brett Keisel occupy blockers and bullrush effectively so that the Steeler Linebackers can make plays. The Jets D-Line has Shaun Ellis, Sione Pouha, and Mike DeVito and all three of those men work extremely hard to occupy blockers and bullrush effectively. Yes, I am aware that I described both D-Lines in the same manner.
Advantage: Neither

Linebackers: The Jets do not have slouches in their grouping with guys like Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Taylor, and David Harris. Yet the Steelers have the greatest collection of Linebackers in their franchise's history (Yes I said it. Have you seen them play? You can't run on them!). James Harrison, James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons stuff anything and everything that comes their way. They are four beasts that can't be stopped and they have a fifth LB in Larry Foote that come off of the bench and provides no let down in talent when he is on the field.
Advantage: Steelers

Secondary: The Jets have Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie and those two men are fantastic cornerbacks. The Steelers have Troy Polamalu, the best safety in the NFL. I personally think that's a wash.
Advantage: Neither

Special Teams: Brad Smith will play in this Sunday's game and that provides a huge boost to the return game of the Jets which already wasn't lacking with Antonio Cromartie returning kicks as well. I personally can't think of anyone of note on the Steeler Special Teams.
Advantage: New York

Prediction: These two teams met in Week 15 of the Regular Season with a lot on the line and the New York Jets won that game 22-17. Take into account that the Jets have a healthier O-Line and I have enough evidence in that Week 15 result to convince me that the Jets and Packers will be meeting in the Super Bowl. Jets win 24-19

So if you made it to the end of this long-winded blog post, I'd like to thank you for sticking it out to the end. Have a wonderful weekend!