The last week of NFL football proved to be unpredictable for me as I went 1-3 in my picks. The only team that was able to make me look like I had some semblance of an idea about the landscape of the NFL were the Green Bay Packers who were also my pre-season pick to win the Super Bowl. Yet what intrigued me the most about the Divisional Round of the Playoffs was not the fact that I absolutely shat the bed on my picks, but rather it was the evident disparity of parity within the conferences.
Over in the NFC, there were two blowouts between teams that obviously were on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to talent and ability. The Packers have always been the most talented team in the NFC, and the Bears paid way too much money in the off-season to their free agent acquisitions to lose at home to the Seattle Seahawks (By the way, what a HORRIBLE time for the Seahawks to remember that they just don't have enough talent to compete with teams this season. Oh well, we'll always have the last two games in Seattle). The Packers and Bears have been proving to their entire conference throughout the season that they have the two largest collections of talent in the NFC and it is not close for third (which would have been shared by Atlanta and New Orleans who have great players, but not enough good players to survive with the Packers and Bears).
The AFC showcased two matchups of division rivals who knew each other well, but also showed that they were very evenly matched with one another. If you took these four teams and had them play each other in a round-robin format for 6 games, I think all the teams would end up with identical 3-3 records. The AFC has truly become an "Any Given Sunday" type of conference where any one of those top teams can beat the other and it showed in those two close games between the Ravens and Steelers, and the Patriots and Jets. Having to choose between Pittsburgh and New York is going to be such a tough task (that also goes for Green Bay and Chicago), so I've decided that the best thing to do is to list these four teams by position group and decide where the biggest deficiencies are so that an intelligent (and correct) decision can be reached. On to the picks!
NFC Championship: #2 Chicago Bears (12-5) vs. #6 Green Bay Packers (12-6)
QB's: Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers - I think the answer is obvious here, but let's go ahead and give it a little more explanation. In the two playoff games Rodgers has been in this year he has thrown for 6 TD's, run for 1, and thrown 0 INT's. He also has only thrown 14 incompletions in 63 attempts. Cutler, on the other hand, had a good game at home against the very bad Seahawks secondary. The jury is out on Cutler, but the verdict is in for Rodgers and it says Rodgers is really, really good.
Advantage: Green Bay
Running Game: Chicago has Matt Forte and a shaky O-Line that has come together in the second half of the season. Plus, Mike Martz has shown a willingness to run a bit more which has given the running game of the Bears much more confidence. The Packers counter with James Starks, a man that has come out of nowhere to provide two nice games in the playoffs and they also have Jon Kuhn and Brandon Jackson who provide a nice change of pace. Neither team's running attack scares me, so I'm going to go with a push.
Advantage: Neither
Receivers and TE's: The Bears receivers are lead by the speedy combo of Devin Hester and Johnnie Knox with Earl Bennett and Greg Olson providing the possession attack. They can stretch the field and also run the 8 yard curl route on 3rd and 6 that can beat you. The Packers counter with a who's who of receivers in Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver, and Jordy Nelson. The reason that Jones and Nelson are household names is because of Rodgers, but these men know how to run all the routes, deep and shallow, and they extend plays better than any group of receivers in the NFL.
Advantage: Green Bay
O-Line: Both O-lines have had good days and both have had bad ones. I've seen both teams allow multiple sack in a game and I have also seen those same linemen give the QB's 4 to 5 seconds in the pocket on any single play. It is a matter of which defense can challenge and confuse the O-Line to a greater extent.
Advantage: Neither
D-Line: I really like the duo of Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji on the Packers side, but Julius Peppers is an absolute beast and Israel Idonije (sorry, I sneezed) and
Tommie Harris clog the middle up as well as any other DT's in the league. This is an easy one because of the man in Navy Blue wearing #90.
Advantage: Julius Peppers... I mean, Chicago
Linebackers: This is the closest of the groupings for these two teams. The Bears have phenomenal athletes in Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs who can make tackles on any portion of the field. The Packers have possibly the best defensive player in the NFL in Clay Matthews and a couple of stalwarts in the middle of the field with A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop. For both teams, this area is a strength, but I think the Packers' scheme and Clay Matthews make the difference.
Advantage: Green Bay
Secondary: This is the most obvious discrepency between these two teams. The Packers might have the most talented secondary in the league with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams on either side of the field and Pro Bowler Nick Collins manning the middle of the field. The Bears counter with Charles Tillman, an above-average CB, and not much else.
Advantage: Green Bay
Special Teams: Devin Hester.
Advantage: Chicago
Prediction: This game will be a defensive struggle due to the fact that it is the third game between these two teams and the fact that these two teams have great defenses and bad weather to battle against, it will be the team who scores 20 or more points that wins this game. The Packers proved in Philadelphia that they can win close ones like these and I think they do it again. Packers win 20-10
AFC Championship: #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4) vs. #6 New York Jets (13-5)
QB's: Big Ben vs. Mark Sanchez - All these two men do is win, no matter what. They've got titles on their mind, they can never get enough. And every time they step up on the field, everybody's hands go up... and they stay there Sorry, I had to quote the chorus of the song "All I Do Is Win" for these two men because that is really all they do. These men are leaders and they make a habit of showing up when it matters. The only difference, Big Ben has two Super Bowl titles under his belt.
Advantage: Pittsburgh
Running Game: The Jets have the healthier O-Line and a Hall of Famer in LaDainian Tomlinson. Add Shonn Greene, a man that only shows up in the playoffs, to that attack and that is a fearsome group. The Steelers counter with Rashard Mendenhall and an O-Line that is average when healthy. Mendenhall isn't bad, but his O-Line is.
Advantage: New York
Receivers and TE's: The Steelers have the most underrated Tight Ends in the NFL today because they are asked to block just as well if not better than they catch the ball. They are a huge part of the Steeler offense. Add the speedy abilities of Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace and the reliability of veterans Antwaan Randle El and Hines Ward and it is tough to cover all of those weapons. But the Jets have three bonafide stars at reciver in Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, and Santonio Holmes, plus their Tight End Dustin Keller is a reliable option as well. If I need a big play on third down with two minutes left, I'm relying on Holmes to catch the ball more often than Antonio Brown (the Steelers WR who caught the long ball on 3rd and 19 with two minutes left against the Ravens last week... I knew you had already forgotten).
Advantage: New York
O-Line: Last week, the Steelers had to play Dan Legursky, THEIR LAST AVAILABLE LINEMAN OFF OF THE BENCH! The Jets have Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, two men that are soon-to-be perrenial Pro Bowlers (Mangold is the starter for the AFC this year).
Advantage: New York
D-Line: These two groups are carbon copies of each other. Playing with three down lineman, Casey Hampton, Zigi Hood, and Brett Keisel occupy blockers and bullrush effectively so that the Steeler Linebackers can make plays. The Jets D-Line has Shaun Ellis, Sione Pouha, and Mike DeVito and all three of those men work extremely hard to occupy blockers and bullrush effectively. Yes, I am aware that I described both D-Lines in the same manner.
Advantage: Neither
Linebackers: The Jets do not have slouches in their grouping with guys like Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Taylor, and David Harris. Yet the Steelers have the greatest collection of Linebackers in their franchise's history (Yes I said it. Have you seen them play? You can't run on them!). James Harrison, James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons stuff anything and everything that comes their way. They are four beasts that can't be stopped and they have a fifth LB in Larry Foote that come off of the bench and provides no let down in talent when he is on the field.
Advantage: Steelers
Secondary: The Jets have Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie and those two men are fantastic cornerbacks. The Steelers have Troy Polamalu, the best safety in the NFL. I personally think that's a wash.
Advantage: Neither
Special Teams: Brad Smith will play in this Sunday's game and that provides a huge boost to the return game of the Jets which already wasn't lacking with Antonio Cromartie returning kicks as well. I personally can't think of anyone of note on the Steeler Special Teams.
Advantage: New York
Prediction: These two teams met in Week 15 of the Regular Season with a lot on the line and the New York Jets won that game 22-17. Take into account that the Jets have a healthier O-Line and I have enough evidence in that Week 15 result to convince me that the Jets and Packers will be meeting in the Super Bowl. Jets win 24-19
So if you made it to the end of this long-winded blog post, I'd like to thank you for sticking it out to the end. Have a wonderful weekend!
Friday, January 21, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
2011 NFL Divisional Round Predictions
"Beast Mode. Beast Mode! BEAST MODE! BEEEEAAASSSSSTTTT MOOOODDDDEEEEE!!!!! YEEEEEAAAAAHHHHH!" Marshawn Lynch is affectionately known as "Beast Mode" when he is running the football and last week during his game-clinching 67 yard touchdown run, Lynch earned that nickname. As a Seahawks fan, I've been yelling "Beast Mode" at the television everytime I see him run the ball for the Seahawks (Much like Patriots Fans yell out "Law Firm" everytime that Benjarvus Green-Ellis runs the football) and the beginning of this blog entry was a manuscript of how I reacted during that magnificent rumble. That run by Lynch brought out true joy from every football fan that doesn't hate the Seahawks or is a Saints' fan. It was truly what makes football great.
Last week I was a last second FG away from going 4-0 on Wild Card Weekend. I also got the point differential correct for the Seahawks-Saints game and I got the Chiefs' score exactly right (and was three points off of the Ravens' final score in the same game). I like to think that is a good omen for this next round of predictions. Without further ado:
AFC Divisional Playoff #1: #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) vs. #5 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Everyone knows that these two teams love to beat up on each other and that neither team will come out of this game unscathed. Regardless of who scores more points in this football game, the real winner will be the victor's opponent next week. They will receive a team that is beat up and will most likely be missing one to two starters which is a lot in the playoffs. But back to this game, it is Big Ben vs. Flacco, Harrison and Polomalu vs. Lewis and Reed, and one underrated D-Line against another. This game is truly a pick 'em and I don't think home-field advantage is going to matter. When in doubt, go with your gut, and my gut is telling me to stick with the team I predicted to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl during the pre-season.
Final Score: Ravens 16 - Steelers 12
NFC Divisional Playoff #1: #1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3) vs. #6 Green Bay Packers (11-6) Location: Atlanta, GA
I watched their regular season match-up from the opening kickoff to the final play and I remember thinking to myself "These two teams are bound to meet again in the playoffs". I also thought that the match-up would occur during the Conference Championship, but it looks like I was a round off. During that regular season game I noticed that the Falcons had trouble moving the ball on the Packers and had to rely on field position to earn all of their 20 points while the Packers left at least 7 points on the field that day if not more. There were a couple of red zone turnovers that were committed by the Packers, but mostly the lasting impression was that the Packers stopped themselves that day and Atlanta was lucky to get a win. I feel like if these two teams played ten times, the Packers would win nine of them and since the Falcons already won once, I'm picking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Final Score: Packers 24 - Falcons 13
NFC Divisional Playoff #2: #2 Chicago Bears (11-5) vs. #4 Seattle Seahawks (8-9)
Location: Chicago, IL
So here is where the ride ends, right? The Seahawks can't beat a team as tough on defense as the Bears twice, especially at Soldier Field, right? It defies logic to think that a team could be 9-9 in the Conference Championship, right? I mean, look at the 2004 St. Louis Rams and the 2008 San Diego Chargers, the other two teams with non-winning records that won a game in the playoffs, but they both lost in the Divisional Playoffs, just like the Seahawks will, right? Honestly, I think the Bears are a good enough team to make the playoffs, and a bad enough team to get upset at home in the playoffs by a team with a losing record. The Seahawks have a QB with 5 postseason victories, a running game that has earned over 100 yards in each of their last two games, and some stability on the O-Line for the first time all year. I'm taking the Seahawks and everyone will have their eyes on Seattle, WA for the NFC Championship!
Final Score: Seahawks 27 - Bears 19
AFC Divisional Playoff #2: #1 New England Patriots (14-2) vs. #6 New York Jets (12-5)
Location: Foxborough, MA
The main event of the weekend is the rubber match between the Jets and the Patriots. I think it is evident which team has been preparing for this match-up strategically and which team believes that talking crap and puffing out their chest will somehow create an advantage on the football field. I'm supposed to believe in Mark Sanchez because he "called his own play" at the end of the Colts-Jets game last week? A game in which the Jets scored only 17 points and won by one?! The Colts were a subpar team with a great QB and the Jets are an average team with a very shaky demeanor. Plus, the Patriots don't lose Divisional Round games at home. If anything, they lose these games on the road. I'm choosing Brady, Belichick, and the smart-asses from Massachusettes to cruise to the AFC Championship.
Final Score: Patriots 38 - Jets 10
So if it all goes the way I see it, we're looking at Patriots-Ravens in the AFC Championship (early game most likely) and then the Seahawks-Packers in the NFC Championship. I'd watch both of those games while on the edge of my seat. I hope my picks pan out.
Last week I was a last second FG away from going 4-0 on Wild Card Weekend. I also got the point differential correct for the Seahawks-Saints game and I got the Chiefs' score exactly right (and was three points off of the Ravens' final score in the same game). I like to think that is a good omen for this next round of predictions. Without further ado:
AFC Divisional Playoff #1: #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) vs. #5 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Everyone knows that these two teams love to beat up on each other and that neither team will come out of this game unscathed. Regardless of who scores more points in this football game, the real winner will be the victor's opponent next week. They will receive a team that is beat up and will most likely be missing one to two starters which is a lot in the playoffs. But back to this game, it is Big Ben vs. Flacco, Harrison and Polomalu vs. Lewis and Reed, and one underrated D-Line against another. This game is truly a pick 'em and I don't think home-field advantage is going to matter. When in doubt, go with your gut, and my gut is telling me to stick with the team I predicted to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl during the pre-season.
Final Score: Ravens 16 - Steelers 12
NFC Divisional Playoff #1: #1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3) vs. #6 Green Bay Packers (11-6) Location: Atlanta, GA
I watched their regular season match-up from the opening kickoff to the final play and I remember thinking to myself "These two teams are bound to meet again in the playoffs". I also thought that the match-up would occur during the Conference Championship, but it looks like I was a round off. During that regular season game I noticed that the Falcons had trouble moving the ball on the Packers and had to rely on field position to earn all of their 20 points while the Packers left at least 7 points on the field that day if not more. There were a couple of red zone turnovers that were committed by the Packers, but mostly the lasting impression was that the Packers stopped themselves that day and Atlanta was lucky to get a win. I feel like if these two teams played ten times, the Packers would win nine of them and since the Falcons already won once, I'm picking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Final Score: Packers 24 - Falcons 13
NFC Divisional Playoff #2: #2 Chicago Bears (11-5) vs. #4 Seattle Seahawks (8-9)
Location: Chicago, IL
So here is where the ride ends, right? The Seahawks can't beat a team as tough on defense as the Bears twice, especially at Soldier Field, right? It defies logic to think that a team could be 9-9 in the Conference Championship, right? I mean, look at the 2004 St. Louis Rams and the 2008 San Diego Chargers, the other two teams with non-winning records that won a game in the playoffs, but they both lost in the Divisional Playoffs, just like the Seahawks will, right? Honestly, I think the Bears are a good enough team to make the playoffs, and a bad enough team to get upset at home in the playoffs by a team with a losing record. The Seahawks have a QB with 5 postseason victories, a running game that has earned over 100 yards in each of their last two games, and some stability on the O-Line for the first time all year. I'm taking the Seahawks and everyone will have their eyes on Seattle, WA for the NFC Championship!
Final Score: Seahawks 27 - Bears 19
AFC Divisional Playoff #2: #1 New England Patriots (14-2) vs. #6 New York Jets (12-5)
Location: Foxborough, MA
The main event of the weekend is the rubber match between the Jets and the Patriots. I think it is evident which team has been preparing for this match-up strategically and which team believes that talking crap and puffing out their chest will somehow create an advantage on the football field. I'm supposed to believe in Mark Sanchez because he "called his own play" at the end of the Colts-Jets game last week? A game in which the Jets scored only 17 points and won by one?! The Colts were a subpar team with a great QB and the Jets are an average team with a very shaky demeanor. Plus, the Patriots don't lose Divisional Round games at home. If anything, they lose these games on the road. I'm choosing Brady, Belichick, and the smart-asses from Massachusettes to cruise to the AFC Championship.
Final Score: Patriots 38 - Jets 10
So if it all goes the way I see it, we're looking at Patriots-Ravens in the AFC Championship (early game most likely) and then the Seahawks-Packers in the NFC Championship. I'd watch both of those games while on the edge of my seat. I hope my picks pan out.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
A Disturbing Trend
In June of 2010, I graduated from the University of Oregon. Before graduating from that place of higher education, I considered myself a big fan of their athletic program, and after my time there, I became an even larger fanatic of Ducks Sports. Last night I watched the Oregon Ducks lose in the BCS National Championship game to the Auburn Tigers 22-19. It was a sad sight to see, but one that I was not totally shocked by after watching the entire game. The Oregon Duck Football Team has achieved unbridled success over the past two years, but they have also suffered painful setbacks in two of the biggest games that they have participated in. In those two games (2010 Rose Bowl and 2011 BCS National Championship) I noticed a disturbing trend in how the Ducks played in each game that can be stated in three simple words: They Got Scared.
It seemed in both the Rose Bowl and the BCS Title Game that the brevity of the moment got in the heads of the team and the coaching staff. In a way that is unique to the Oregon Ducks, they have calmly bullied lesser teams into submission with their pace of play and overall talent as a team. Yet in the bowl games, the inherent talent disparity is closed because both Ohio State and Auburn have the same quality of talent that Oregon does if not more (as far as depth is concerned) and the pace of play is less of a surprise to their opponents because those teams had almost a month to five weeks to condition and learn how to play quickly. With those advantages now negated, it comes down to who wants it more and who plays mistake-free football and that is something that Oregon does not do well.
Something that I have mentioned about the New York Jets in the NFL this year is that they are the biggest bullies in the league, but if you punch them in the mouth and prove you are not scared, then the bully begins to cower away and stray from their strength. This is what has happened to the Ducks, they have been punched in the mouth and instead of sticking to their guns and fighting back, they have cowered and try to beat their opponents with deception. A perfect example of this comes from last night's game when the kick return and punt return teams of Oregon were absolutely stuffed by Auburn. Oregon even twice tried to run kick return reverses, which are slow-developing plays that only work if the opposing team is deceived, which almost never happens anymore. The return teams for Oregon were one of the biggest strengths on the entire team and multiple kickoffs were returned for touchdowns throughout the year when the returner caught the ball and just found a hole and ran. Then in the biggest game of the year the Ducks decide to try and run kick return reverses? Why?
The Oregon coaching staff had a tendency to make certain decisions in certain situations, like go for it on fourth down when the ball is too far to kick a field goal and too short to kick an effective punt. Yet those decisions to be aggresive and earn the name of "Big Balls Chip" (which the students of UO graciously call the head coach Chip Kelly) were suddenly gone. On more than one occasion in both the Rose Bowl and the BCS Title Game, Chip and the Ducks coaching staff decided not to go for it on fourth down on the opponent's side of the 50-yard-line and punted. Granted, the Ducks made a couple of aggresive calls, one that worked and one that did not (the fake punt that resulted in a first down which was followed on the same possession with a fourth down run on the one yard line that was stuffed) but there were multiple opportunities for the Ducks to be aggresive and put the pressure on Auburn and Ohio State and the coaching staff got conservative. Along those lines, it seemed that the coaching staff was a little tight, a little scared, and the players always play in the image of the coaching staff, so if the coaches are playing tight and not to lose, then the players will play tight and not to lose. If you play that way, you end up losing.
I think the Ducks could actually win the National Title next year, but there has to be a change in attitude within the coaching staff and with the players. These men have to believe they can beat any team they play when the Ducks play their game. If you don't believe that you can beat any team when you play your game, then you have already lost. It seems to me that when the Ducks score 36 points in the last two bowl games combined (which is 13 points fewer than what they averaged per game in the 2010 season) that the Ducks didn't play their best. At some point, the finger has to be pointed at the Ducks themselves.
It seemed in both the Rose Bowl and the BCS Title Game that the brevity of the moment got in the heads of the team and the coaching staff. In a way that is unique to the Oregon Ducks, they have calmly bullied lesser teams into submission with their pace of play and overall talent as a team. Yet in the bowl games, the inherent talent disparity is closed because both Ohio State and Auburn have the same quality of talent that Oregon does if not more (as far as depth is concerned) and the pace of play is less of a surprise to their opponents because those teams had almost a month to five weeks to condition and learn how to play quickly. With those advantages now negated, it comes down to who wants it more and who plays mistake-free football and that is something that Oregon does not do well.
Something that I have mentioned about the New York Jets in the NFL this year is that they are the biggest bullies in the league, but if you punch them in the mouth and prove you are not scared, then the bully begins to cower away and stray from their strength. This is what has happened to the Ducks, they have been punched in the mouth and instead of sticking to their guns and fighting back, they have cowered and try to beat their opponents with deception. A perfect example of this comes from last night's game when the kick return and punt return teams of Oregon were absolutely stuffed by Auburn. Oregon even twice tried to run kick return reverses, which are slow-developing plays that only work if the opposing team is deceived, which almost never happens anymore. The return teams for Oregon were one of the biggest strengths on the entire team and multiple kickoffs were returned for touchdowns throughout the year when the returner caught the ball and just found a hole and ran. Then in the biggest game of the year the Ducks decide to try and run kick return reverses? Why?
The Oregon coaching staff had a tendency to make certain decisions in certain situations, like go for it on fourth down when the ball is too far to kick a field goal and too short to kick an effective punt. Yet those decisions to be aggresive and earn the name of "Big Balls Chip" (which the students of UO graciously call the head coach Chip Kelly) were suddenly gone. On more than one occasion in both the Rose Bowl and the BCS Title Game, Chip and the Ducks coaching staff decided not to go for it on fourth down on the opponent's side of the 50-yard-line and punted. Granted, the Ducks made a couple of aggresive calls, one that worked and one that did not (the fake punt that resulted in a first down which was followed on the same possession with a fourth down run on the one yard line that was stuffed) but there were multiple opportunities for the Ducks to be aggresive and put the pressure on Auburn and Ohio State and the coaching staff got conservative. Along those lines, it seemed that the coaching staff was a little tight, a little scared, and the players always play in the image of the coaching staff, so if the coaches are playing tight and not to lose, then the players will play tight and not to lose. If you play that way, you end up losing.
I think the Ducks could actually win the National Title next year, but there has to be a change in attitude within the coaching staff and with the players. These men have to believe they can beat any team they play when the Ducks play their game. If you don't believe that you can beat any team when you play your game, then you have already lost. It seems to me that when the Ducks score 36 points in the last two bowl games combined (which is 13 points fewer than what they averaged per game in the 2010 season) that the Ducks didn't play their best. At some point, the finger has to be pointed at the Ducks themselves.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
The 2011 NFL Wild Card Round: Predictions and Thoughts
It has been 8 months since I last littered this space with my thoughts and opinions about the wonderful worlds of sports and pop culture and so I felt like the 2011 NFL Wild Card Round would be a fantastic place to start the year and get back on the horse, of sorts. What follows are my predictions for the winners of the game, and not who I think will win involving the spread. If the spread was involved, these picks would be different. By the way, I love gambling.
NFC Wild Card #1, Saturday, January 8, 4:30 P.M. ET - #4 Seattle Seahawks (7-9) vs. #5 New Orleans Saints (11-5), Seattle, WA
By all means, this should be a blowout. The Seahawks should not even be in the playoffs. The Saints are the defending World Champions of American Football and they still have Drew Brees under center. There are a multitude of reasons why this game is going to go the Saints way and I am going to ignore them all. Granted, I am a lifelong Seahawks fan and I am bias when it comes to Seattle's Professional Football Team, but I can offer some plausible reasons for why the Seahawks can pull this off.
1) The game is being played in Seattle at the loudest stadium in the NFL, Qwest Field (Random tangent, how horrible is it that one of the most intimidating stadiums in the NFL is called Qwest Field? I wish it was named in someone's honor, or that there was a cool nickname for it). According to Aaron Schatz of Footballoutsider.com (via The B.S. Report podcast on ESPN.com), there was an actual study done that stated that the only stadium in the NFL where the noise can actually cause false starts is Qwest Field. Take into account that a banged up Saints team will be travelling to the opposite side of the country on a short week, and that stadium becomes much more prevelent.
2) Drew Brees is quietly having a slightly less than stellar year. His yards, TD's, and completion percentage are basically on par with his previous totals, but have you seen his INT total? 22!! YEAH, 22 INT's!!! You can't tell me that the Madden Curse doesn't have anything to do with that, and I think Brees plays horribly in Seattle due to the Madden Curse and the fact that with Reggie Bush and Julius Jones carrying the ball, the passing lanes are that much smaller. Brees will throw at least 2 INT's in this game. With these two main reasons and the fact that the Saints and everybody else believes they should walkover the Seahawks, I think New Orleans gets caught sleeping and can't come back.
Final Score: Seattle 22 - New Orleans 17
AFC Wild Card #1, Saturday, January 8, 8:00 P.M. ET - #3 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) vs. #6 New York Jets (10-6), Indianapolis, IN
Rex Ryan has gone from entertaining to a blowhard. The Jets are the biggest bullies in the NFL (they won that title when they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago) but bullies never prosper in the long run. Indianapolis is a cerebral team with the one of the most prepared QB's in the league in Peyton Manning, and Manning is not scared of the Jets. The way you stop a bully is exactly how the New England Patriots beat them in Foxboro on a Monday Night, you stare at them straight in the eye, prove you're not scared, then outsmart them and exploit their strength as a weakness. In this case, the Pats used short passes behind the blitzes of the Jets to exploit the lack of quality safeties in the Jets secondary. The Jets can't tackle, so they try to force the offense into bad plays quickly, because if you extend a play, then the Jets lack of technique in all facets rears its ugly head. That all comes back to the coach, Ryan, who believes that if you talk a big game, then you start believing you're that good. What Ryan does not realize is that no one is scared of him or his team. Ryan could be beaten in a foot race or a fight and so could the Jets.
Final Score: Colts 31 - Jets 9
AFC Wild Card #2, Sunday, January 9, 1:00 P.M. ET - #4 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) vs. #5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5), Kansas City, MO
At the beginning of the year I chose the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I actually thought about choosing them to win the Lombardi Trophy, but I thought that Flacco is not a good enough QB to win a Lombardi Trophy... yet. The Ravens are a team that still does not have an identity on either side of the ball and that scares me. But you could have said that about either Steelers team that won the Super Bowl in the 2000's, or even the 2006 Colts. Sometimes it comes down to talent getting hot at the right time and I feel like the Ravens could make a run to the Super Bowl and be the surprise AFC participant in the Super Bowl and it all starts with this game. Can the Chiefs exploit the Ravens' weakness in the secondary? I don't think so because wherever Dwayne Bowe is, Ed Reed will be on that side of the field. With Haloti Ngata up front and Ray Lewis in the middle, the defense still has some ability to shut a team down and this Chiefs team is eerily similar to last year's Bengals team that got shut down in the 4-5 matchup by the Jets. The Ravens are the monkey wrench in the AFC playoffs and they are going to shock some people by going far into the playoffs.
Final Score: Ravens 27 - Chiefs 7
NFC Wild Card #2, Sunday, January 9, 4:30 P.M. ET - #3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) vs. #6 Green Bay Packers (10-6), Philadelphia, PA
This is the matchup that will present the most entertaining game of the Wild Card Round. Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews vs. Michael Vick and... wait a second, who plays defense for the Eagles? Isn't that a huge issue that no one can think of a single difference maker on the Eagles defense? You might be able to present Asante Samuel, but his health is iffy and he can't cover every receiver on every play or rush the QB every down. The Packer defense has been hot ever since their bye week and they have only gotten healthier as the season has progressed. Meanwhile, Vick has only gotten worse as the season has gone along and he may have hit his peak in the Monday Night Redskins game and the fourth quarter of the Giants game at the Meadowlands. Don't get me wrong, I think the Eagles can score on the Packers Defense early, but that second half will be the half of reckoning for the Eagles and the Packers will pull away. I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl in the Pre-Season and I am not relenting on that pick. I'm picking Rodgers, Matthews, and the Packers as long as they are playing.
Final Score: Packers 35 - Eagles 23
So they are my Wild Card Picks, I'll be back to write down my Divisional Picks next week for sure. Hopefully I'll keep writing in a much more timely and often manner. Until then, bitches and hoes.
NFC Wild Card #1, Saturday, January 8, 4:30 P.M. ET - #4 Seattle Seahawks (7-9) vs. #5 New Orleans Saints (11-5), Seattle, WA
By all means, this should be a blowout. The Seahawks should not even be in the playoffs. The Saints are the defending World Champions of American Football and they still have Drew Brees under center. There are a multitude of reasons why this game is going to go the Saints way and I am going to ignore them all. Granted, I am a lifelong Seahawks fan and I am bias when it comes to Seattle's Professional Football Team, but I can offer some plausible reasons for why the Seahawks can pull this off.
1) The game is being played in Seattle at the loudest stadium in the NFL, Qwest Field (Random tangent, how horrible is it that one of the most intimidating stadiums in the NFL is called Qwest Field? I wish it was named in someone's honor, or that there was a cool nickname for it). According to Aaron Schatz of Footballoutsider.com (via The B.S. Report podcast on ESPN.com), there was an actual study done that stated that the only stadium in the NFL where the noise can actually cause false starts is Qwest Field. Take into account that a banged up Saints team will be travelling to the opposite side of the country on a short week, and that stadium becomes much more prevelent.
2) Drew Brees is quietly having a slightly less than stellar year. His yards, TD's, and completion percentage are basically on par with his previous totals, but have you seen his INT total? 22!! YEAH, 22 INT's!!! You can't tell me that the Madden Curse doesn't have anything to do with that, and I think Brees plays horribly in Seattle due to the Madden Curse and the fact that with Reggie Bush and Julius Jones carrying the ball, the passing lanes are that much smaller. Brees will throw at least 2 INT's in this game. With these two main reasons and the fact that the Saints and everybody else believes they should walkover the Seahawks, I think New Orleans gets caught sleeping and can't come back.
Final Score: Seattle 22 - New Orleans 17
AFC Wild Card #1, Saturday, January 8, 8:00 P.M. ET - #3 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) vs. #6 New York Jets (10-6), Indianapolis, IN
Rex Ryan has gone from entertaining to a blowhard. The Jets are the biggest bullies in the NFL (they won that title when they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago) but bullies never prosper in the long run. Indianapolis is a cerebral team with the one of the most prepared QB's in the league in Peyton Manning, and Manning is not scared of the Jets. The way you stop a bully is exactly how the New England Patriots beat them in Foxboro on a Monday Night, you stare at them straight in the eye, prove you're not scared, then outsmart them and exploit their strength as a weakness. In this case, the Pats used short passes behind the blitzes of the Jets to exploit the lack of quality safeties in the Jets secondary. The Jets can't tackle, so they try to force the offense into bad plays quickly, because if you extend a play, then the Jets lack of technique in all facets rears its ugly head. That all comes back to the coach, Ryan, who believes that if you talk a big game, then you start believing you're that good. What Ryan does not realize is that no one is scared of him or his team. Ryan could be beaten in a foot race or a fight and so could the Jets.
Final Score: Colts 31 - Jets 9
AFC Wild Card #2, Sunday, January 9, 1:00 P.M. ET - #4 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) vs. #5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5), Kansas City, MO
At the beginning of the year I chose the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I actually thought about choosing them to win the Lombardi Trophy, but I thought that Flacco is not a good enough QB to win a Lombardi Trophy... yet. The Ravens are a team that still does not have an identity on either side of the ball and that scares me. But you could have said that about either Steelers team that won the Super Bowl in the 2000's, or even the 2006 Colts. Sometimes it comes down to talent getting hot at the right time and I feel like the Ravens could make a run to the Super Bowl and be the surprise AFC participant in the Super Bowl and it all starts with this game. Can the Chiefs exploit the Ravens' weakness in the secondary? I don't think so because wherever Dwayne Bowe is, Ed Reed will be on that side of the field. With Haloti Ngata up front and Ray Lewis in the middle, the defense still has some ability to shut a team down and this Chiefs team is eerily similar to last year's Bengals team that got shut down in the 4-5 matchup by the Jets. The Ravens are the monkey wrench in the AFC playoffs and they are going to shock some people by going far into the playoffs.
Final Score: Ravens 27 - Chiefs 7
NFC Wild Card #2, Sunday, January 9, 4:30 P.M. ET - #3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) vs. #6 Green Bay Packers (10-6), Philadelphia, PA
This is the matchup that will present the most entertaining game of the Wild Card Round. Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews vs. Michael Vick and... wait a second, who plays defense for the Eagles? Isn't that a huge issue that no one can think of a single difference maker on the Eagles defense? You might be able to present Asante Samuel, but his health is iffy and he can't cover every receiver on every play or rush the QB every down. The Packer defense has been hot ever since their bye week and they have only gotten healthier as the season has progressed. Meanwhile, Vick has only gotten worse as the season has gone along and he may have hit his peak in the Monday Night Redskins game and the fourth quarter of the Giants game at the Meadowlands. Don't get me wrong, I think the Eagles can score on the Packers Defense early, but that second half will be the half of reckoning for the Eagles and the Packers will pull away. I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl in the Pre-Season and I am not relenting on that pick. I'm picking Rodgers, Matthews, and the Packers as long as they are playing.
Final Score: Packers 35 - Eagles 23
So they are my Wild Card Picks, I'll be back to write down my Divisional Picks next week for sure. Hopefully I'll keep writing in a much more timely and often manner. Until then, bitches and hoes.
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